Lieberman in a No Lose situation.

Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) may have gambled one time too many and stands to lose big time.

More than the GOP, one person fearing, and praying against a Democratic super majority in the senate is Senator Lieberman. His choices are stark. If McCain wins, he can choose any cabinet position he wants in a McCain administration and not worry about his senate seat. What gives him heartburn, however, is the looming earthquake in the senate contests that threatens to dramatically alter the setup in the senate, and thus his fortunes.

Though once a Democratic stalwart, towing the party line for nearly two decades, and only breaking strikingly with the party on the Iraq war, Lieberman is in a precarious position with the Democratic Party.

The matrix
McCain wins, Lieberman wins.
Democrats maintain their slim senate seats advantage, Lieberman wins
Democrats fall short of 60 seats super majority, Lieberman wins
Democrats gain super majority, 60 or more seats, Lieberman loses big time.

In 2000, while running for vice president on the Democratic Party ticket with Al Gore, Lieberman simultaneously successfully campaigned for his senate reelection. He took the weekends off from presidential campaigning because of the Jewish Sabbath. That may have been agreed upon before he was invited to join the ticket. When they lost the presidential election, Lieberman calmly returned to the senate, with no tinge of scar to his standing with the Democratic Party or the American people. Fast forward 6 years to his 2006 senatorial reelection bid.

Because of his strong support of the Iraq war, he lost the Democratic Party senate nomination, but ran and won as an Independent. What was the Democratic Party’s answer? Nothing. In fact, the Democrats kept, and actually rewarded him with the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committee chairmanship position. Despite rumbling from Democratic voters, the leadership balked. He will caucus with, and help them maintain their tiny majority in the senate.

Sensing he has the Democratic Party, as McCain would say, “just where he wants them,” Lieberman decided to take his gamble to another level.

Throughout the 2008 election, he has not only voiced his support for his friend John McCain, the Republican Party’s standard bearer, he actively campaigned on his behalf to Jewish voters especially in Florida, a battleground state. He also gave a speech at this year’s Republican convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. In his convention speech, Lieberman served as an attack dog, sharply criticizing his former party’s nominee, Barack Obama, much to the chagrin of Democratic leadership and voters. This speech may have been the last straw.

Analysis
If McCain wins the presidency, Lieberman wins. He gets to choose any cabinet position he desires, thus may not need his senate seat. If Democrats increase their majority less than the super majority, say 59 or less, Lieberman stands to keep his seat and his chairmanship. If, as it is increasingly looking probable, they get to 60 or more, Democratic leaders would have no choice but to show Mr. Lieberman where to sit and with whom NOT to caucus in the next congress. What would be worse is its symbolism.

Lieberman will have to face not only his former colleagues in the chambers but his constituents, having lost his seniority and now his chairmanship because he chose to do his own thing one time too many. That’s why Lieberman prays for a McCain win and a Democratic less-than-super majority senate win.

Where have the smart GOPers gone? From a former GOPer.

No offence intended on this write-up.

But, is it just me or have Republicans and their voters always been so less informed than the rest of the country? GW still has 73 percent approval rating with republicans, for crying out loud!

To hear elected officials, Ms Palin is believed to be inteligent, and “a breath of fresh air.” Like Bob Hayes (R), NC says, it’s the media that’s after her.

Some are even arguing that should McCain not win, she will be the new face of leadership in the GOP. This begs the questions.

Has anyone seen where she participated in a round table and articulated her positions? Did I miss her policy presentation anywhere?
Originally posted as a comment by E_Houston_TX on Political Wire using Disqus.

Measuring Obama’s support in dollars and presense

No one sends money to a candidate’s campaign unless they are in support. Just 14 days from election, with attitudes crystalizing, few will attend a candidate’s campaign unless they indeed plan to vote for the candidate–Emmanuel A. Smart

This picture and the news of Obama’s whopping $150 million fund raising number tell the story. Click on the picture to view. Continued below.

Obama speaks to the largest crowd of supporters yet

On October 13, I wrote about the country’s economic woes and superb campaigning by the Obama’s team trumping so-called Bradley effect. Two specific events this past weekend help seal this thinking. On Saturday, the Obama’s campaign released their September fund raising total, a whopping $150 million dollars and Obama speaks to 100,000 people in Missouri, the largest crowd before whom he’s ever spoken in the US. Check out the crowd. Case close.

RE: McCain has $47 million to spend in October

The Associated Press announced today that John McCain has $47 million left to spend in October. It begs the question. 1. Where will he find help? 2. Is waving the white flag of surrender allowed in presidential politics?

In contrast, Obama has just raked in $150 million in one month to spend as he wishes!

RNC, 527’s and built-in loop holes in the MCain-Feingold finance reform bill will make little or no difference.

As I wrote in this blog on June 20, 2008 on Obama’s announcement that he was rejecting public financing, this was the real reason FOXNoise and the right wingers were squealing like pigs. That fear, indeed, has materialized. I don’t know where McCain can find help. Maybe he should consider abandoning the whole thing and just walk away. Talk about being caught between a rock and a very hard place.

First, the RNC has congressional seats to try to protect; besides, they will not take over McCain’s campaign. Secondly, 527’s on the right are matched by those on the left. Thirdly, McCain is barred from raising any more money for his campaign because of the limit that comes with accepting the $84.1 million public financing.

McCain is in the worst position anyone can possible find himself. With 2 weeks to go, an eternity in politics, he is staring at a well-oiled, well funded, deciplined Obama’s political machine that is just revving up. I wonder if waving the white flag of surrender is allowed in presidential elections? hm?

Economic pains, Superb Campaigning Trump Bradley Effect

Comparison of the election which gave us the so-called Bradley effect and this one is like comparing apples to oranges, literally.

Since the beginning of the general election in June 2008 between Senators Barrack Obama and John McCain, various scenarios have been explored to gauge who would emerge the winner in November. The fact is that the country has never had any election like this in its 232 years. Suffice it to say nothing in our past can serve as model for predicting the result of this one. Several critical factors contribute to this uncertainty.

1. This is the first time in recent memory where an incumbent with such low approval rating, 23% according to the latest polling today, is not running for reelection.

2. Economic paralysis including big banks failure, credit freeze, home foreclosure, personal incomes down, stock market in a nosedive, massive job loss across the country; plant closings especially in the industrial regions of the country; general atmosphere of economic fear gripping the nation.

3. A genuine war hero, Caucasian senator with over 26 years in congress, running as one party nominee.

4. The other party’s nominee, an inexperienced Senator; Harvard educated; African American, running as best a presidential election campaign as has been witnessed before.

5. An unpopular war with the war hero supporting its continuation howbeit as long as necessary to “achieve victory,” and the African American against it from the beginning, and wants a quick end to it.

6. The first time a candidate has refused public financing, financing his campaign exclusively from small donations from millions of ordinary citizens across the country, and American citizens in the Diaspora.

7. Most polling show leads of two to 12 percentage point advantage for the African American, Barrack Obama; an identical domination in the Electoral College map for the senator.

Bradley effect
With this near one-sided polling, almost three weeks to the election, discussions have turn to possible Bradley effect as a way for McCain to still pull out an improbable win despite the odds. Bradley effect was coined from a contest in which polls showed former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, with 65 percent support while running for the governor of California in 1982. He lost the election by a close margin. Caucasians, who had previously voiced support for Bradley, voted for his opponent on Election Day instead, thus supposedly costing him the election.
This time, the outcome will be different. Here is why.

1. The base of Mayor Bradley support was African American, mostly from Los Angeles where he was mayor, with a population only a fraction of that of the state of California at that time.

2. The economic woes from which voters want relief hurt everyone, whites, blacks, Asians, Latinos, and Native Americans.

3. Obama’s campaign has been run in way that transcends race; is populist with a broad coalition of voters from all socioeconomic levels.

4. He appears calm even in the midst of economic turbulence.

5. Without public financing, he is free to raise and spend as much as he wants to. This advantage has been evident in his disproportional television advertisement in key battleground states.

Reverse Bradley effect.
In a reverse Bradley effect, there may actually be more Caucasians who are closet Obama supporters. They would vote for Obama in the privacy of the voting booth than openly sharing with their neighbors their support for Obama.

Obama may win in a blowout.
This election will be won or lost based on Obama’s performance. If he loses it will be close. If he wins, it will be a blowout.

Rest, John McCain, It Just Wasn’t Meant To Be.

Unless, God forbid, something catastrophic happens in the country between now and Nov 4 and, somehow, John McCain becomes the savior to whom everyone looks to rescue us, and thus turn out en mass and vote for him in place of barrack Obama, this election is all but over for john McCain. This POW can use the rest. It just wasn’t meant to be.

The acknowledgment of the 6 point deficit in National polling this morning, and the resignation in John McCain’s campaign manager’s voice on NPR’s Morning edition spoke volumes. True, Steve Schmidt gave us the talking points of the campaign as any campaign manager should. True, we technically have three weeks before Nov. 4, the actual voting day, but I think McCain is resigned to this inevitability and may just be counting the days until the end of campaigning. My summation is thus.

Forget what the media is saying. This thing may not be as close after all. The ground to make up for the McCain’s campaign is almost insurmountable:

Just when the McCain’s campaign appears to be out of synch in message and tactics, the opponent appears to be tightening up and getting better organized for the sprint to the finish line.

On a weekend when McCain is hunkered down for debate prep, the opponent brings in even “bigger guns” to campaign in must-win states of FL, PA and OH. Meanwhile, the once shoo-in for VP, Florida governor Charlie Crist will campaign for McCain in Florida (if he has the time).

Other GOPers are jumping ship with no big guns going to bat for him in any of the so-called battleground states

The opponent’s money-on-hand advantage

Polling numbers that would not just budge, at least in a less favorable direction for the opponent, not to mention favorability ratings

Thirty minutes block prime-time purchases on two National network, with two more in discussion on October 29, just less than one week before the national election.

Etc, etc, etc.

Negative attacks
Several articles, today, and from the weekend imply that the McCain’s negative attacks on Obama have boomeranged and actually hurt John McCain politically. Several polls in the past few days bear that out. As if to underscore this very point, McCain was forced to defend Barrack Obama in Wisconsin on Friday when a supporter called Obama an “Arab.” Further, the campaign has largely stayed on the issues with little or none of the vicious attacks of the past 10 days or so from the candidate or his running mate.

Nothing left to say
These articles also suggest that John McCain has some solutions for the ills of the country he has eschewed in place of the negative campaign he has run. The truth is that as seen in the debates, he has said all he has wanted to say. Nothing more is left in the tank. Think about it. The dominant issue is the economy and its rapidly changing circumstances to which few have answers. McCain, based on his admission, doesn’t know “as much as I should” about the economy. So, case closed.

Couple that with the fact that he checked his independent endearing credentials, even to this writer, and instead espoused too much right wing ideas in a poorly run campaign, McCain may just be counting the days to the end of campaigning so he can get some much needed rest. This POW can sure rest his aching feet.